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A Note on the Accuracy of Business Economists' Gold Price Forecasts
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E.A. Selvanathan
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Abstract
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Until recently the Economic Research Centre (ERC) panel at the University of Western Australia published forecasts of future gold prices in The West Australian newspaper. This note assesses the accuracy of these forecasts. The results show that the actual gold price series follows a simple random walk and that the forecasts obtained from this model perform slightly better than those of the ERC panel.
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Download this article.
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Keywords
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GOLD PRICES; RANDOM WALK; UNIT ROOT; FORECAST ACCURACY.
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Contact Details
E.A. Selvanathan
School of International Business Relations
Griffith University
Queensland 4111
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I would like to thank Professor Ken Clements and Mr. Robert Greig of the University of Western Australia, two anonymous referees and the editor of this journal for their comments.
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