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Volume 32 Number 2 December 2007 |
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A Test for Long-Term Cyclical Clustering of Stock Market Regimes |
| John Powell Rubén Roa Jing Shi Viliphonh Xayavong |
Abstract |
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This paper finds that observed monthly United States stock index returns are consistent with an underlying mechanism of shifts in regimes amongst multiple states with differing means and volatility. An issue of especial interest is whether
long-term clustering of regimes gives rise to stock market cycles. The paper therefore introduces a likelihood ratio test for long-term clustering of regimes. Clustering of regime presence tends to involve much longer term cycles than the bull and bear market cycles identified by Pagan and Sossounov (2003), thus extending the research issues that are associated with the analysis of mean returns using multiple state regime-switching models.
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Keywords |
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STOCK RETURNS; REGIME SHIFT; CLUSTERING; STOCK MARKET CYCLES.
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Contact DetailsJohn PowellDepartment of Finance, Banking and Property, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand. Rubén Roa Department of Statistics, Universidad de Concepcion, Chile. Jing Shi School of Finance, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, China, and School of Finance and Applied Statistics, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200. Viliphonh Xayavong University of Western Australia. Email: Jing.Shi@anu.edu.au |
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