|
The Kyoto Protocol—Issues and Developments through to Conference of the Parties (COP7)E-Brief: Online Only issued 13 September 2002Mike Roarty, Analysis
and Policy
|
Sector |
1990
|
1991
|
1992
|
1993
|
1994
|
1995
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 –e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Change 1990-00
|
% Change 1990-00
|
1. All Energy |
298.7
|
300.5
|
304.5
|
307.1
|
312.1
|
324.4
|
334.2
|
342.5
|
360.5
|
363.6
|
371.8
|
73.1
|
24.5
|
Stationary energy |
208.5
|
211.5
|
212.6
|
215.0
|
218.9
|
226.3
|
234.2
|
240.4
|
258.7
|
259.8
|
264.0
|
55.5
|
26.6
|
Transport |
61.5
|
61.0
|
62.8
|
63.8
|
65.6
|
68.4
|
70.6
|
72.4
|
72.6
|
73.9
|
76.3
|
14.8
|
24.1
|
Fugitive |
28.8
|
28.0
|
29.1
|
28.3
|
27.6
|
29.6
|
29.4
|
29.2
|
31.2
|
30.1
|
31.5
|
2.7
|
9.4
|
2. Industrial processes |
12.0
|
11.7
|
11.5
|
10.8
|
10.7
|
9.7
|
9.8
|
9.7
|
10.9
|
10.4
|
10.3
|
-1.7
|
-14.3
|
3. Solvent & other product use |
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
4. Agriculture |
91.3
|
91.6
|
90.2
|
90.0
|
89.2
|
89.3
|
89.3
|
91.4
|
92.4
|
95.2
|
98.4
|
7.1
|
7.8
|
5. Land-Use Change and Forestry |
85.9
|
58.4
|
38.0
|
43.8
|
46.5
|
40.8
|
37.8
|
39.5
|
39.9
|
38.2
|
38.0
|
-47.9
|
-55.8
|
6. Waste |
15.3
|
15.6
|
15.8
|
16.1
|
16.1
|
15.8
|
15.9
|
16.1
|
16.0
|
16.4
|
16.7
|
1.4
|
9.2
|
Total |
503.3
|
477.8
|
460.1
|
467.3
|
474.5
|
479.9
|
487.1
|
499.3
|
519.6
|
524.0
|
535.3
|
32.0
|
6.3
|
Source: Australian Greenhouse Office. Mt CO2 -e is million tonne (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent. Note: Tabulation based on UNFCCC Inventory accounting provisions as distinct from 108% target Inventory accounting provisions. Numbers may not add due to rounding.
The data in Table 1 show the dominance of energy production and use as
a source of greenhouse gas emissions in
Total emissions have increased by 32.0Mt from 1990 to 2000, an increase
of 6.3 per cent. The major part of the increase has occurred in the All
Energy sector with an increase of 73.1Mt over the ten-year period, a 24.5
per cent increase. However, emissions from Industrial processes have declined
over the ten-year period, largely attributable to changes in the processes
used in the aluminium industry. Emissions from the Agriculture sector
have increased by 7.1Mt or 7.8 per cent over the ten-year period. Whilst
emissions from the Forestry and Other are negative (acting as greenhouse
sinks), net emissions from the broader Land Use Change and Forestry sector
are positive and amounted to 38Mt in 2000. However, this was a 55.8 per
cent decline from the net emissions of 85.9Mt in 1990. The 2000 National
Greenhouse Gas Inventory was the first time complete comparative figures
for this sector have been reported. Previously only the sink offsets of
the Forestry and Other sub sector were reported. The previous reporting
effectively indicated that
Figures in Table 1 indicate the energy sector
is one of continuing growth in emissions and an increasing share of
According to the UNFCCC accounting practices,
emissions across all sectors in
However, assessment of
The AGO[6] has outlined a number of significant projection trends including:
In June 1999, as part of A New Tax Package, the government introduced a series of Measures for a Better Environment (for details see Measures for a better environment). These included new programs to support photovoltaic and other forms of renewable energy, and the use of alternative fuels. A major program, which began on 1 July 2000, is the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Program (GGAP). The program, funded at $100 million a year over four years will be used to fund maximum abatement and sequestration opportunities.
Another key development is the progression of policy on emissions trading.
During 1999, the AGO published four discussion papers, namely: Establishing
the boundaries, Issuing the permits, Crediting the carbon and, Designing
the market. The contents and strategies outlined in these papers are expected
to lead to the implementation of an emissions trading system in
To date,
In addition to the above programs, the Federal Government has mandated a requirement that an additional 2 per cent of electricity will need to be generated from renewable energy sources by 2010 (The Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act 2000). The renewable energy industry is gearing up to meet the challenge and opportunity presented by the Federal Government's mandatory renewables target, phasing in from April 2001. The initiative will boost the sale of electricity generated by accredited renewable sources to large electricity retailers and large purchasers by 9 500 GWh per annum by 2010. In addition, the Commonwealth will provide $381 million in support to the industry over the next four years.[7] This requirement will increase the electricity generated from renewable sources from the current 10.7 per cent to 12.7 per cent by 2010. The Government introduced a number of amendments to the Renewable Energy Act in mid 2002.
In June 2002, Prime Minister
In contrast to the Coalition's position, the Labor Party stated that
in October 2001[9] it would ratify the Kyoto Protocol if it had
won the last Federal election. Whilst the announcement was part of what
it believed was a more comprehensive strategy for tackling climate change
and its effects on
The presence and active participation of Ministers and senior officials at the resumed COP6, or COP Part 2 in July 2001 led to the Bonn Agreement. This reflected a political consensus amongst the international community that the work of the last several years should be bought to completion through political agreement. It was considered imperative that the work of translating the Bonn Agreement into Conference decisions be completed at COP7, Marrakesh.
The principles set out in the Bonn Agreement which were to form the basis for the Marrakesh decisions included:
Agreement was reached at Bonn that a penalty would apply to countries that emitted greenhouse gases in excess of their 'assigned amount' under the Protocol. The penalty was set at 1.3, that is, for every carbon equivalent tonne a country emits in excess of its target, it must subsequently reduce its overall emissions total by 1.3 tonnes for the next commitment period.
A key unresolved Bonn issue related to the binding nature of compliance and any consequences for non-compliance. That is, could outcomes of compliance and dispute mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol produce 'legal consequences' for a country that had ratified? The Bonn agreement essentially deferred this difficult decision for further discussion until after the ratification of the Protocol. This decision didn't move beyond that at Marrakesh.
The resumed COP6 session passed to COP7 a number of negotiating texts on different issues in varying states of finalisation. The principal texts requiring finalisation were the texts on compliance, the text setting out the rules for the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms, and the text on the treatment of sinks.
The final Marrakesh agreement on the operation of the flexibility mechanisms—emissions trading, joint implementation and the clean development mechanism—included provisions that have the potential to impede the development of an efficient, transparent and competitive international market for emission credits. Most significantly, a 'mandatory commitment period reserve' has been imposed. This commitment period reserve means that in the period 2008–2012, each country must hold up to 90 per cent of their total emissions in a non-tradeable reserve. This effectively allows trade in only 10 per cent of most countries total emissions. The issue of the interchangeability (or 'fungibility') of the different Kyoto mechanisms (emissions trading, joint implementation and the clean development mechanism) and carbon sinks was resolved. With the exception of some restrictions on the use of sink credits, the units would be interchangeable and of equivalent value. This will allow the most cost-effective mixture of projects and market-based measures to be taken to reduce global emissions, and may significantly lower the cost of complying with the Protocol.
The reconvened COP6 session at Bonn made significant progress on a final text on the rules for carbon sinks. Sinks that can be used to offset emission increases were defined to include a broad range of activities. These activities include growing forests, re-afforestation, and improved forestry, cropland and grazing land management practices. No overall limit was placed on the amount of sinks credits that could be claimed; countries instead were given quotas set out in Annex Z of the Bonn agreement that reflected their individual circumstances.[10]
At the previous negotiations,
The sink outcomes incorporate several of
In their closing statements at COP7, many Parties expressed satisfaction that consensus had been achieved on all outstanding work under the Buenos Aires Plan of Action (COP4), thus bringing to a close this stage of negotiations, and preparing the way for ratification and entry into force of the Protocol.
For further details see Outcomes from COP7
On the scientific side—and a reminder that global warming is real and a world problem—Robert Watson, Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), addressed COP6 and described the current state of scientific understanding of the Earth's climate system. He highlighted the vulnerability of ecological systems, and underlined the need for effective policy and technological responses. He affirmed a projected increase in global mean surface temperatures and a rise in sea levels, and outlined the negative implications of these increases for water resources, agriculture, natural ecosystems and human health.
Preliminary findings of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 'Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis'[11] released in January 2001, indicated the impact of global warming is more severe than first thought and the aftershocks of climate change will have a profound impact for centuries.
The report is a three-year compilation of the best scientific knowledge about the effects of rising global temperatures and concludes that much of the damage to the environment is already irreversible. Scientists have predicted the earth's temperatures would increase between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius, pushing sea levels up between 0.09 to 0.88 metres over the next 100 years.
Climatic extremes, such as severe storms, floods
and droughts, would become more frequent in many regions in the 21st
century. Flooding could displace tens of thousands of people living in
countries such as
The CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research maintains that for atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide to be stabilised at either two or three times the level of pre-industrial times, that is 550 parts per million (ppm) or 750ppm, massive changes in global emissions paths will be required. These paths are outlined in Figure 1.
The ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by Annex 1 countries could only be considered a first step towards the reduction in world wide emissions growth. Greenhouse gas emissions have grown substantially from around 2 Gigatonnes a year (Gt/y) in 1950 to a little over 8 Gt/y in 2000. A business as usual scenario would see emissions grow to around 17 Gt/y by the year 2100.
Figure 1: World emissions paths required to stabilise levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.Source: CSIRO Department of Atmospheric Research
Even with the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to keep gradually increasing at least until after 2010, and most likely beyond that period as stabilisation of emissions from Annex countries would be more than offset by increases in emissions from non-Annex 1 countries. Most Annex 1 countries emissions levels are now well above what they were in 1990, and emissions from non-Annex 1 countries are expected to overtake Annex 1 countries by around 2005. Greenhouse gases are relatively long lived, and remain in the atmosphere for long periods and add to the 'enhanced greenhouse effect', which is believed responsible for global warming.For world wide greenhouse gas emissions to follow the lower trend line—and result in an eventual doubling of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times (550ppm)—is highly improbable if one considers the following factors. Of the world's population of around 6 billion people, some 2 billion currently do not have access to reliable power supply and do aspire to having such access. Also, the world population is projected to increase by a further 2 billion people within the next hundred years or so and these people will have a demand for electricity. Much of the world's electricity infrastructure is geared to the use of fossil fuels (coal, gas or oil) and any large-scale switch to a non fossil fuel based infrastructure is unlikely to occur quickly.
The continuation of a business-as-usual scenario without Kyoto would result in greenhouse gas emissions increasing to more than double what they are now or to around 17 Gt/year by 2100. Although the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research does not quantify what this would mean in terms of increases in greenhouse gas emission levels in the atmosphere, one surmises that it could result in either a quadrupling or even greater level compared to pre-industrial levels. If such levels were reached, the effects on climate may be profound considering claims that the present increase in atmospheric concentration of around 30 per cent on pre-industrial levels is already having considerable impact.
A number of commentators have pointed out that there may be more than environmental considerations at stake in the Kyoto Protocol negotiations. It is evident that the EU has a less onerous task of meeting the Kyoto Protocol undertakings. As such, a hardened approach to the negotiation process may advantage the EU on economic grounds. Firstly, there is the fact that the EU has the flexibility of sharing a 'bubble' arrangement amongst members states, which is equivalent to an opportunity to reduce emissions in the least cost regions. The loosely aligned Umbrella group has argued for similar considerations through the full use of the flexibility mechanisms and the use of sinks, which the EU has objected to vehemently. Also, many European countries generate substantial amount of their electricity through nuclear power plants, which have negligible emissions. As seen earlier, greenhouse gas emissions from stationary energy generation, and in particular coal-fired electricity generation are the most intensive. Furthermore, the EU has little to gain from offsets such as carbon sinks and land use change. It could be suggested, perhaps somewhat cynically, that attempts by the EU to limit the use of such techniques (if in fact they are a valid measurable scientific method of sequestering carbon) is akin to seeking a substantial economic and trade advantage over other Annex 1 countries.
It is also evident that of the substantial number
of government participants that attend and are actively involved in Conference
of the Parties negotiations—for COP7, there were over 4400 participants
(well down on previous meetings) from 172 governments—only 39 of them
are Annex 1 countries that have made a commitment under the Kyoto Protocol
to reduce or contain emission levels to some extent. In March 2001, the
A key consideration is
The IPCC statement stands in stark contrast with the present aim of industrialised countries in the Kyoto Protocol to achieve an overall reduction in their greenhouse gas emissions of at least 5 per cent in the period to 2008–2012. Nothing the nations have yet agreed to do comes remotely close to what the IPCC said would be needed to stabilise atmospheric concentrations at today's levels.
However, many commentators have stated that the Kyoto Protocol is at least a start on emissions reductions although the task of decoupling the use of energy and emissions intensity would appear daunting. Despite the uptake and development of many forms of renewable energy—biomass, wind and solar—energy use projections from the International Energy Agency indicate the bulk of total primary energy supply will remain sourced from fossil based fuels well beyond 2010.
[1].Senator the Hon Robert Hill, Speaking at a meeting to the Pew Centre on Global Climate Change in Washington, 'Beyond Kyoto–Australia's efforts to combat global warming', 25 April 2000, Canberra, p. 3.
[2].G Andrews, 'Climate Change, The current status of Australia's response', Proceedings of the National Agricultural and Resources Outlook Conference, ABARE, 29 February–2 March 2000, Canberra, vol. 1, p. 69.
[3].Jotzo, F., et al,' Kyoto Protocol, Impact on developing countries and some implications for the design of the Kyoto mechanisms', ABARE, Natural Resources, Outlook 2000, New Directions Future Markets, Proceedings of the National Outlook Conference, 29 February–2 March, Canberra, p. 52.
[4].International Energy Agency, 'CO2
Emissions from Fuel Combustion', 1971–1999, 2001 Edition,
[5].Australian Greenhouse Office, 'National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2000', August 2002, Canberra, p. v.
[6].Australian Greenhouse Office, '
[7].Australian Energy News 2000, 'Renewables Energy action agenda', Canberra, March, p. 21.
[8].Prime Minister, The
[9].
[10].Garth
[11].UN warns of global-warming crisis, The Canberra Times, 23 January 2001, p. 2.
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